Time: 3:30 PM - 5:30 PM
Location: Cosi, at East 31st street and Park Ave (Northeast corner), Manhattan, NY. Please look for us in the back.
Topic: What do YOU want to hear about?
It would be great if we did a session on all-star methods used for assessing business problems. We'll assess business cases, think of it in terms of business model (a matrix will be distributed during the meeting), and then huddle to discuss. Members will use an assigned model to assess the cases.
At the end, the goal will be for us to decide which method appears to be the best and to determine the pros and cons on the methods.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Poker Odds
Hi BSHers and MMBEers,
Here's a fabulous write up on poker and odds provided by Devi Huggins.
Thanks, Devi!
The odds of a hand in a game
Poker is played with 52 cards, 4 suits(hearts, diamonds, clubs, spades), 13 cards in a suit (ace through king, and ace can be highest or lowest)
Hands in the dame(ranked in the order best to worst)
Royal Flush = (Ace, King, Queen, Jack, 10 – all of the same suit)
Straight Flush = (5 cards in numerical order, all the same suit, no 10 as that makes it a Royal Flush. Ace can be a low card here)
Four of a kind = (4 cards of the same numerical value, and another random card. )
Full house = (3 cards of the same number and 2 cards of the same number, but not the same as the 3)
Flush = (5 cards of the same suit)
Straight
Three of a kind
Two pair
One pair
High card
Odds of Choosing 5 cards out of 52:
- There are 52 ways of choosing the first card.
- 51 ways of choosing the second card
- 50 ways of choosing the third card
- 49 ways of choosing the fourth card
- 48 ways of choosing the fifth card
The total number of choices then are: 52*51*50*49*48 = 311,875, 299
Since the 5 cards can be arranged in any order, they can be arranged in 5*4*3*2= 120
different ways, the number of ways of choosing 5 cards becomes
(52*51*50*49*48)/( 5*4*3*2) .= 311,875, 299/120
The probability is written as52 choose 5 or 52C5 = 2598960
(XCY = X!/(X-Y)!/Y!
Odds of a Royal Flush:
There are 4 Royal Flushes, one for each suit. So the odds are 4 out of 2598960
Odds for Three of a kind:
There are 4 ways to get a triple out of 4 suits. and 13 possible numbers, so there are 13*4=52 possible triples.
There are 2 remaining cards to choose (5 cards in a hand) . They cannot be the same rank as the triple (it would then become a 4 of a kind), which means there are 48 cards remaining to choose from. Also the 2 cards cannot have the same rank (as that would make it a double and make the hand a full house) so there are 44 choices for the last card.
and 2 ways to arrange the 2 cards. So the number of combinations for the last 2 are 48*44/2 = 1056.
Total possible hands for three-of-a-kind is then (13*4=52)*(48*44/2=1056) = 54912.
The odds of getting this hand is 54912 out of 2598960.
Odds for Four of a kind
There are 13 ways to select 4 cards of the same number. There are 48 cards left to choose the last cards – that is 48 ways.
So the number of choices are 13*48 = 624
The odds of getting this hand is 624 out of 2598960
Odds of a Full House
This is a triple and a double –
odds for a triple= (13*4 = 52 )
odds for a double = select 2 (same number) from 4 (different suits) = 4C2 = 4*3*2 /2*2 = 6
52*6 = 312
Odds for a full house then is 312 out of 2598960
Odds for a Straight Flush
That is 5 cards in sequential order, all from the same suit. The lowest card cannot be a 10, as that will make it a Royal Flush.
There are 9 ways of choosing 5 sequential cards, if we exclude the card with the lowest as 10.
Since there are 4 suits, the number of choices are 9*4 = 36.
The odds of this choice is 36 out of 2598960.
Here's a fabulous write up on poker and odds provided by Devi Huggins.
Thanks, Devi!
The odds of a hand in a game
Poker is played with 52 cards, 4 suits(hearts, diamonds, clubs, spades), 13 cards in a suit (ace through king, and ace can be highest or lowest)
Hands in the dame(ranked in the order best to worst)
Royal Flush = (Ace, King, Queen, Jack, 10 – all of the same suit)
Straight Flush = (5 cards in numerical order, all the same suit, no 10 as that makes it a Royal Flush. Ace can be a low card here)
Four of a kind = (4 cards of the same numerical value, and another random card. )
Full house = (3 cards of the same number and 2 cards of the same number, but not the same as the 3)
Flush = (5 cards of the same suit)
Straight
Three of a kind
Two pair
One pair
High card
Odds of Choosing 5 cards out of 52:
- There are 52 ways of choosing the first card.
- 51 ways of choosing the second card
- 50 ways of choosing the third card
- 49 ways of choosing the fourth card
- 48 ways of choosing the fifth card
The total number of choices then are: 52*51*50*49*48 = 311,875, 299
Since the 5 cards can be arranged in any order, they can be arranged in 5*4*3*2= 120
different ways, the number of ways of choosing 5 cards becomes
(52*51*50*49*48)/( 5*4*3*2) .= 311,875, 299/120
The probability is written as52 choose 5 or 52C5 = 2598960
(XCY = X!/(X-Y)!/Y!
Odds of a Royal Flush:
There are 4 Royal Flushes, one for each suit. So the odds are 4 out of 2598960
Odds for Three of a kind:
There are 4 ways to get a triple out of 4 suits. and 13 possible numbers, so there are 13*4=52 possible triples.
There are 2 remaining cards to choose (5 cards in a hand) . They cannot be the same rank as the triple (it would then become a 4 of a kind), which means there are 48 cards remaining to choose from. Also the 2 cards cannot have the same rank (as that would make it a double and make the hand a full house) so there are 44 choices for the last card.
and 2 ways to arrange the 2 cards. So the number of combinations for the last 2 are 48*44/2 = 1056.
Total possible hands for three-of-a-kind is then (13*4=52)*(48*44/2=1056) = 54912.
The odds of getting this hand is 54912 out of 2598960.
Odds for Four of a kind
There are 13 ways to select 4 cards of the same number. There are 48 cards left to choose the last cards – that is 48 ways.
So the number of choices are 13*48 = 624
The odds of getting this hand is 624 out of 2598960
Odds of a Full House
This is a triple and a double –
odds for a triple= (13*4 = 52 )
odds for a double = select 2 (same number) from 4 (different suits) = 4C2 = 4*3*2 /2*2 = 6
52*6 = 312
Odds for a full house then is 312 out of 2598960
Odds for a Straight Flush
That is 5 cards in sequential order, all from the same suit. The lowest card cannot be a 10, as that will make it a Royal Flush.
There are 9 ways of choosing 5 sequential cards, if we exclude the card with the lowest as 10.
Since there are 4 suits, the number of choices are 9*4 = 36.
The odds of this choice is 36 out of 2598960.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Interested in calculating odds for hands in a new card game?
Dear Members,
Hope you all had a wonderful Happy Thanksgiving!!
One of our Mensa members, Alex Friedmann, is seeking assistance in calculating odds for hands in a new card game based on a modified deck of 42 cards (5 suits, 8 ranks in a suit + 2 blank/jokers). Many of the hands are similar to poker hands but are expanded to include up to 10 cards in a hand. Thus, there would be hands of four or five pair, double straights, full houses of 5/4 or 6/4, etc.
That is the basic concept. If any you are capable (or can steer Alex to someone who may be willing) to assist with this project, that would be greatly appreciated. Please EMAIL michaelpu222@yahoo.com and for more info or a to express your interest. Thanking you in advance.
Hope you all had a wonderful Happy Thanksgiving!!
One of our Mensa members, Alex Friedmann, is seeking assistance in calculating odds for hands in a new card game based on a modified deck of 42 cards (5 suits, 8 ranks in a suit + 2 blank/jokers). Many of the hands are similar to poker hands but are expanded to include up to 10 cards in a hand. Thus, there would be hands of four or five pair, double straights, full houses of 5/4 or 6/4, etc.
That is the basic concept. If any you are capable (or can steer Alex to someone who may be willing) to assist with this project, that would be greatly appreciated. Please EMAIL michaelpu222@yahoo.com and for more info or a to express your interest. Thanking you in advance.
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Sunday, October 4th, from 3:30pm-5:30pm.
Devi will lead this discussion. She is also very kind to offer us to use her place for the meeting (unless there are other openings that are closer for everyone who is coming).
Time: 3:30 PM - 5:30 PM
Location: 425 Main Street. (That is Roosevelt Island. You can get there from the F train stop or the cable car from 2nd Avenue and 60th Street)
Possible Topics: Netflix Ratings Problem: Jim Collins - his books "built to last", "good to great," etc. (Some government statistics: http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/index.htm)
· About 2 years ago Netfix offered a prize of 1 million dollars - "The Netflix Prize seeks to substantially improve the accuracy of predictions about how much someone is going to love a movie based on their movie preferences." www.netflixprize.com
· Please google the Netfix puzzle and then we can discuss it.
· Lots of teams competed, Devi thinks they have closed the competition now, but she would love to hear about, discuss the solutions offered, etc.
· As for the government site, Devi thought it was interesting, and maybe (on another day) someone will give a talk on statistical methods in business.
Devi will need a RSVP list to leave with the doorman.
You can get there on the F train (Roosevelt Island stop) or on the tram (cable car) from 2nd ave between 59 and 60th streets. The tram takes metro card same as the subway and it’s a free transfer to the subways.
The R and 4,5, 6 trains stop nearby. and buses on 2nd and 3rd aves do so as well.
Time: 3:30 PM - 5:30 PM
Location: 425 Main Street. (That is Roosevelt Island. You can get there from the F train stop or the cable car from 2nd Avenue and 60th Street)
Possible Topics: Netflix Ratings Problem: Jim Collins - his books "built to last", "good to great," etc. (Some government statistics: http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/index.htm)
· About 2 years ago Netfix offered a prize of 1 million dollars - "The Netflix Prize seeks to substantially improve the accuracy of predictions about how much someone is going to love a movie based on their movie preferences." www.netflixprize.com
· Please google the Netfix puzzle and then we can discuss it.
· Lots of teams competed, Devi thinks they have closed the competition now, but she would love to hear about, discuss the solutions offered, etc.
· As for the government site, Devi thought it was interesting, and maybe (on another day) someone will give a talk on statistical methods in business.
Devi will need a RSVP list to leave with the doorman.
You can get there on the F train (Roosevelt Island stop) or on the tram (cable car) from 2nd ave between 59 and 60th streets. The tram takes metro card same as the subway and it’s a free transfer to the subways.
The R and 4,5, 6 trains stop nearby. and buses on 2nd and 3rd aves do so as well.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Thanks to all who made it to the June 28th meeting!
The meeting docs have been uploaded into the Business Solutions Hub website. You will find them at the bottom of the Marketing page.
http://sites.google.com/site/mensabusiness/Home/marketing
Enjoy the rest of the week.
Diana
http://sites.google.com/site/mensabusiness/Home/marketing
Enjoy the rest of the week.
Diana
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Meeting Sunday, June 28th
Location: 250 Fifth Ave (on 28th street), Suite 200, Manhattan
Time: 3pm -5pm
Topic: Marketing Strategy
1. Online Marketing: Opportunities and Trends
2. Assessing Results: Online Analytics and Other Evaluation Developments
3. Market Segmentation / Niche Markets: Advantages to Being a Big Fish in a Small Pond
4. Case Study: Introduction, Discussion on Pros and Cons
See you there!
Also, please send an email to let us know that you are coming: dmaguilar23@gmail.com
Time: 3pm -5pm
Topic: Marketing Strategy
1. Online Marketing: Opportunities and Trends
2. Assessing Results: Online Analytics and Other Evaluation Developments
3. Market Segmentation / Niche Markets: Advantages to Being a Big Fish in a Small Pond
4. Case Study: Introduction, Discussion on Pros and Cons
See you there!
Also, please send an email to let us know that you are coming: dmaguilar23@gmail.com
MENSA Calgary Regional Gathering
Mensa Calgary will be hosting a Regional Gathering at the Banff Springs Hotel in beautiful Banff, Alberta, Canada September 11-13th and we would love to have you join us. Please visit our website at www.mensabanffrg.com.
Patricia Almost
Mensa Calgary
LocSec/Events Coordinator
almostp@shaw.ca
403 212 1461
Patricia Almost
Mensa Calgary
LocSec/Events Coordinator
almostp@shaw.ca
403 212 1461
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