Mathematical Methods for Business and Economics

We're having a meeting this Sunday, May 2nd, from 3:30pm-5:30pm

2010-05-01T12:48:00.000-07:00

Time: 3:30 PM - 5:30 PM
Location: Cosi, at East 31st street and Park Ave (Northeast corner), Manhattan, NY. Please look for us in the back.
Topic: What do YOU want to hear about?

It would be great if we did a session on all-star methods used for assessing business problems. We'll assess business cases, think of it in terms of business model (a matrix will be distributed during the meeting), and then huddle to discuss. Members will use an assigned model to assess the cases.
At the end, the goal will be for us to decide which method appears to be the best and to determine the pros and cons on the methods.

Poker Odds

2010-04-06T08:19:00.000-07:00

Hi BSHers and MMBEers,
Here's a fabulous write up on poker and odds provided by Devi Huggins.
Thanks, Devi!

The odds of a hand in a game

Poker is played with 52 cards, 4 suits(hearts, diamonds, clubs, spades), 13 cards in a suit (ace through king, and ace can be highest or lowest)

Hands in the dame(ranked in the order best to worst)

Royal Flush = (Ace, King, Queen, Jack, 10 – all of the same suit)

Straight Flush = (5 cards in numerical order, all the same suit, no 10 as that makes it a Royal Flush. Ace can be a low card here)

Four of a kind = (4 cards of the same numerical value, and another random card. )

Full house = (3 cards of the same number and 2 cards of the same number, but not the same as the 3)

Flush = (5 cards of the same suit)

Straight

Three of a kind

Two pair

One pair

High card

Odds of Choosing 5 cards out of 52:

- There are 52 ways of choosing the first card.
- 51 ways of choosing the second card
- 50 ways of choosing the third card
- 49 ways of choosing the fourth card
- 48 ways of choosing the fifth card

The total number of choices then are: 52*51*50*49*48 = 311,875, 299

Since the 5 cards can be arranged in any order, they can be arranged in 5*4*3*2= 120

different ways, the number of ways of choosing 5 cards becomes

(52*51*50*49*48)/( 5*4*3*2) .= 311,875, 299/120

The probability is written as52 choose 5 or 52C5 = 2598960

(XCY = X!/(X-Y)!/Y!

Odds of a Royal Flush:
There are 4 Royal Flushes, one for each suit. So the odds are 4 out of 2598960

Odds for Three of a kind:
There are 4 ways to get a triple out of 4 suits. and 13 possible numbers, so there are 13*4=52 possible triples.

There are 2 remaining cards to choose (5 cards in a hand) . They cannot be the same rank as the triple (it would then become a 4 of a kind), which means there are 48 cards remaining to choose from. Also the 2 cards cannot have the same rank (as that would make it a double and make the hand a full house) so there are 44 choices for the last card.

and 2 ways to arrange the 2 cards. So the number of combinations for the last 2 are 48*44/2 = 1056.

Total possible hands for three-of-a-kind is then (13*4=52)*(48*44/2=1056) = 54912.

The odds of getting this hand is 54912 out of 2598960.

Odds for Four of a kind
There are 13 ways to select 4 cards of the same number. There are 48 cards left to choose the last cards – that is 48 ways.

So the number of choices are 13*48 = 624

The odds of getting this hand is 624 out of 2598960

Odds of a Full House

This is a triple and a double –

odds for a triple= (13*4 = 52 )

odds for a double = select 2 (same number) from 4 (different suits) = 4C2 = 4*3*2 /2*2 = 6

52*6 = 312

Odds for a full house then is 312 out of 2598960

Odds for a Straight Flush
That is 5 cards in sequential order, all from the same suit. The lowest card cannot be a 10, as that will make it a Royal Flush.

There are 9 ways of choosing 5 sequential cards, if we exclude the card with the lowest as 10.

Since there are 4 suits, the number of choices are 9*4 = 36.

The odds of this choice is 36 out of 2598960.

Interested in calculating odds for hands in a new card game?

2009-11-30T15:49:00.000-08:00

Dear Members,

Hope you all had a wonderful Happy Thanksgiving!!

One of our Mensa members, Alex Friedmann, is seeking assistance in calculating odds for hands in a new card game based on a modified deck of 42 cards (5 suits, 8 ranks in a suit + 2 blank/jokers). Many of the hands are similar to poker hands but are expanded to include up to 10 cards in a hand. Thus, there would be hands of four or five pair, double straights, full houses of 5/4 or 6/4, etc.

That is the basic concept. If any you are capable (or can steer Alex to someone who may be willing) to assist with this project, that would be greatly appreciated. Please EMAIL michaelpu222@yahoo.com and for more info or a to express your interest. Thanking you in advance.

Sunday, October 4th, from 3:30pm-5:30pm.

2009-10-03T16:20:00.000-07:00

Devi will lead this discussion. She is also very kind to offer us to use her place for the meeting (unless there are other openings that are closer for everyone who is coming).

Time: 3:30 PM - 5:30 PM
Location: 425 Main Street. (That is Roosevelt Island. You can get there from the F train stop or the cable car from 2nd Avenue and 60th Street)

Possible Topics: Netflix Ratings Problem: Jim Collins - his books "built to last", "good to great," etc. (Some government statistics: http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/index.htm)

· About 2 years ago Netfix offered a prize of 1 million dollars - "The Netflix Prize seeks to substantially improve the accuracy of predictions about how much someone is going to love a movie based on their movie preferences." www.netflixprize.com

· Please google the Netfix puzzle and then we can discuss it.

· Lots of teams competed, Devi thinks they have closed the competition now, but she would love to hear about, discuss the solutions offered, etc.

· As for the government site, Devi thought it was interesting, and maybe (on another day) someone will give a talk on statistical methods in business.

Devi will need a RSVP list to leave with the doorman.

You can get there on the F train (Roosevelt Island stop) or on the tram (cable car) from 2nd ave between 59 and 60th streets. The tram takes metro card same as the subway and it’s a free transfer to the subways.

The R and 4,5, 6 trains stop nearby. and buses on 2nd and 3rd aves do so as well.

Thanks to all who made it to the June 28th meeting!

2009-06-29T08:52:00.000-07:00

The meeting docs have been uploaded into the Business Solutions Hub website. You will find them at the bottom of the Marketing page.

http://sites.google.com/site/mensabusiness/Home/marketing

Enjoy the rest of the week.
Diana

Meeting Sunday, June 28th

2009-06-25T10:35:00.000-07:00

Location: 250 Fifth Ave (on 28th street), Suite 200, Manhattan
Time: 3pm -5pm
Topic: Marketing Strategy
1. Online Marketing: Opportunities and Trends
2. Assessing Results: Online Analytics and Other Evaluation Developments
3. Market Segmentation / Niche Markets: Advantages to Being a Big Fish in a Small Pond
4. Case Study: Introduction, Discussion on Pros and Cons

See you there!
Also, please send an email to let us know that you are coming: dmaguilar23@gmail.com

MENSA Calgary Regional Gathering

2009-06-25T06:58:00.000-07:00

Mensa Calgary will be hosting a Regional Gathering at the Banff Springs Hotel in beautiful Banff, Alberta, Canada September 11-13th and we would love to have you join us. Please visit our website at www.mensabanffrg.com.

Patricia Almost
Mensa Calgary
LocSec/Events Coordinator
almostp@shaw.ca
403 212 1461

New York Social Venture Salon. Collaborate for Change, May 13th!

2009-05-08T11:11:00.000-07:00

Hi Everyone,

We are working at a time where energy in social change work is high, interest in social innovation and entrepreneurship is continually growing yet resources of many kinds are increasingly constrained. In the face of these challenges and opportunities, we invite you to join us for an evening of engagement and COLLABORATION!

Come and discuss your greatest challenges in relation to collaboration and knowledge sharing. What are some of your greatest roadblocks? What tools do you wish you had to enable your mission? The evening will offer us an opportunity to discuss the needs of the community and how we can harness Web 2.0 technologies to enable, facilitate, and support high impact social change.

This gathering will offer a chance to:

1. Meet and network with a group of visionary social innovators, entrepreneurs, investors, philanthropists, and other influential change makers in New York City and beyond.
2. Make new connections for your work and projects.
3. Contribute to the development of innovative tools to address the greatest challenges in collaboration and creating high impact social change.

Bring your ideas, your passion and your business cards...

Location:
Collective Hardware
169 Bowery (btw Broome and Delancey Sts)
Second Floor
Wednesday, May 13th, 6-8pm

(Space courtesy of Evolver.net)
Conveners:
Chris Lindstrom, Jason Franklin, Mina Lee, Alex Chang, Gianni Martire

Photo from our last meeting.

2009-01-20T12:20:00.000-08:00

Hunting the Hidden Dimension. Chaos Math

2008-11-02T18:25:00.000-08:00

Featuring Fractals and Benoit Mandelbrot

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/fractals/program.html

Check out this site! Great topic:
"Mysteriously beautiful fractals are shaking up the world of mathematics and deepening our understanding of nature."

Our next meeting is on September 7th

2008-09-02T12:26:00.000-07:00

Dear MMBE members!!

Our next meeting is on September 7th (the Sunday after Labor Day weekend).
Please RSVP with michael.pu@priceline.com

Time: 3:00 PM - 5:00 PM
Location: Cosi, at East 31st Street and Park Avenue (northeast corner), Manhattan
Topic: Business Solutions Hub

Please take a look at http://sites.google.com/site/mensabusiness/
Let's explore how we can set this SIG up so that there is an active forum for group members to use outside of our regular meetings.

Thank you very much!

Upcoming meeting: May 4th

2008-04-24T13:21:00.000-07:00

Time: 3:00 PM - 5:00 PM
Location: Cosi, at East 31st Street and Park Avenue (northeast corner), Manhattan
Topic: Marvin will discuss the use of Monte Carlo simulations in analyzing investment strategies. Mohit and Devi will also contribute some info to this round's MMBE talks. You do not need a background on this topic to participate.

If you have any questions, please let us know.

Date Change: Upcoming meeting now March 30th

2008-03-19T07:01:00.000-07:00

Time: 3:00 PM - 5:00 PM
Location: Cosi, at East 31st Street and Park Avenue (northeast corner), Manhattan

Possible Topics:
(a) using the Taguchi Method to optimize email marketing

(b) sharing any experience with using optimization techniques in display advertising

(c) if you have other topics of interest, please let us know

Our February 24th Meeting

2008-02-26T09:08:00.000-08:00

Some attendees of our most recent meeting. We discussed optimization of internal operations and real estate trends.

Price Points

2008-02-19T12:04:00.000-08:00

Here is a great article. Enjoy.

January 30, 2008
Starbucks Looks at New Price Points After Posting Weak Sales Results
By JANET ADAMY

Starbucks Corp. cut by 350 the net number of locations it plans toadd this year after reporting its worst quarterly same-store salesresults in the company's history. CEO Howard Schultz says thecompany is looking more closely at how it can appeal to price-conscious customers by using a strategy he calls segmentation.

The moves are some of the first details of Mr. Schultz's turnaround plan for the struggling coffeegiant since he retook the CEO position earlier this month. Starbucks stock has fallen more than 40% in the past year.

"The fact is the consumer is in a recession," Mr.Schultz said in an interview. The chain is testing a $1cup of brewed coffee at some locations in Seattle andtesting free brewed coffee refills.

"We're not going to get into any price valuediscounting that would dilute the premium place weoccupy," Mr. Schultz said. However, he said thecompany is looking at creating "segmentation" thatwould allow an entry point for new customers the waythat Mercedes-Benz has done with its C-Class andRalph Lauren has done with its Chaps brand.

"There are many entry points that we believe we canleverage that we have not leveraged before," Mr.Schultz said.

Mr. Schultz also said Starbucks plans to stop selling hot breakfast sandwiches by the end of thisyear. The decision was driven by the fact that the scent of the warming sandwiches interfered withthe smell of the coffee, he said.

Starbucks plans to open a net of 1,175 new stores in the U.S. this year, down from the company'searlier forecast of 1,600. The company will close 100 U.S. locations. Instead, Starbucks will openmore stores overseas, a net of 975 this year, where the company faces fewer issues withsaturation. It originally was planning to open 900 locations overseas. In 2009, the company will for the first time open more locations abroad than it does domestically.

The store opening reduction may not be enough to satisfy investors, who were looking for a sharppullback. Mr. Schultz said he believes the reduction is "significant."

Starbucks weak holiday results, released after market close, show just how deep the company's problems are. Same-store sales – a key measure of retailers' success that includes sales at stores open at least 13 months – rose just 1% during the fiscal first quarter that ended Dec. 31. That's the lowest same-store sales number that Starbucks has reported since going public in 1992. In the U.S., same-store sales fell 1%, the first decline for that market since the company began breaking that number out in 2004. Investors, however, are likely to pay more attention to Mr. Schultz'splans for fixing Starbucks since Wall Street had been expecting a weak fiscal first quarter.

During the quarter, net income rose 1.5% to $208.1 million, or 28 cents a share, compared with $205 million, or 26 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 17% to $2.76 billion.

Several years of rapid expansion caught up with Starbucks last year as U.S. store traffic slowed,the shelves inside stores became cluttered and two price increases drove away some customers. Starbucks launched its first national television advertising campaign during the holiday season butthat wasn't enough to help the Seattle chain lure more customers into the stores. At U.S. locations,store traffic, which is measured by average transactions per store, fell 3% during the most recent quarter. That's the second consecutive monthly decline.

Mr. Schultz said he has spend the past few weeks meeting with management and real estatepersonnel, as well as "spending more time than I've spent in many, many years on the customerexperience." Mr. Schultz also reshuffled several top management positions earlier this month.

//online.wsj.com/article_print/SB120171787350829257.html
Related WSJ Articles
Starbucks Anti-Union Emails Reviewed301/23/08• Starbucks Testing $1 Cup of Coffee401/23/08• Venti Changes at Starbucks501/08/08• McDonald's Takes On Starbucks
Related Articles from the Online Journal• Starbucks Chairman Schultz To Take CEO Job, Make Changes• Starbucks Shares Rise as CEO Returns• McDonald's Takes On A Weakened Starbucks• Wendy's Quarterly Sales Decline

Meeting notes: revenue management

2008-02-16T23:31:00.000-08:00

Another thank you goes out to all of you who attended our last MMBE meeting. This was a great opportunity to discuss topics including revenue management applications within entrepreneurial ventures as well as within existing businesses that are adapting to maintain competitiveness. We also delved into discussions on the occurrence of randomness in natural bell curves and situations in which one must/should pay attention to this when doing analyses and forecasts.

How the Finance Gurus Get Risk All Wrong:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/07/11/8265256/index.htm

"In other words, we live in a world of winner-take-all extreme concentration. Similarly, a very small number of days accounts for the bulk of stock market movements: Just ten trading days can represent half the returns of a decade."

Upcoming meeting: January 27th

2008-01-09T11:55:00.000-08:00

Time: 3:00 PM
Topic: Revenue Management
Location: Cosi, at 31st and Park Avenue
Non-M guests are always welcomed! For additional information or reservations, contact Mike at michaelpu222@yahoo.com. RSVP by Wednesday, January 23rd.

Optimization in the workplace and in real estate

2007-12-18T13:18:00.000-08:00

... These were some of the main topics of discussion during our Sunday meeting. Additionally, we talked about qualitative methods in process optimization, some variables involved in hedge funds, and dynamic pricing in e-commerce.

We want to thank all of you who made it in for your great company and thoughtful contributions. It was good fun and a learning experience.

Some info on:
Burgernomics-
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/03/11/pakko.pdf
Minutes of Work per Mig Bac-
http://english.people.com.cn/200608/13/eng20060813_292730.html
The Goal-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Goal_(novel)

Sunday, December 16th 2007, ADDITIONAL MEETING AGENDA

2007-12-12T18:16:00.000-08:00

Time: 3:00 PM
Location: Cosi on East 31st street and Park ave., Midtown, Manhattan. There is an open area in the back of Cosi. We will be there. Contact us if you have any questions.

Curt will be there with the following topics in mind:
1. Applying mathematical methods to help determine where salaries and standard of living is highest in the US and in the world and for what reasons
2. Rehashment of applied mathematical methods to real estate economics
If there are other topics that you would like to cover, please email me with specifics.
Non-M guests are always welcomed! For additional information or reservations, contact michaelpu222@yahoo.com.

Sign up

2007-10-05T11:51:00.000-07:00

Sunday, December 16

Mathematical Methods for Business and Economics SIG
Manhattan 3:00 PM
Topic: Optimization.

Enjoy using mathematics to solve business decision problems? Join us for an afternoon discussion on mathematics for business and economics. We focus on the use of economic analysis and mathematical methods (pure and applied) in dealing effectively with management problems in applied business fields. Non-M guests are always welcomed. For additional information or reservations, contact Diana Aguilar at dmaguilar23@gmail.com.
RSVP by Wednesday before the meeting.

Article: business models

2007-10-04T18:21:00.000-07:00

Why Business Models Matter
Joan Magretta

[[Excerpt]]
Telling a Good Story
The phrase "mathematical model" typically conjures up the image of white boards covered with arcane formulas. Business models, though, should be anything but arcane. They are, at heart, stories -- stories that explain how enterprises work. A good business model answers Peter Drucker's age-old questions: Who is the customer? And what does the customer value? It also answers the fundamental questions every manager must ask: How do we make money in this business? What is the underlying economic logic that explains how we can deliver value to customers at an appropriate cost?

If you want to learn more, please click on the link to read the full article.
http://food.gate2finance.com/sites/food.gate2finance.com/files/Why_BM_Matters.pdf

Demand Elasticity Discussion Group

2007-10-01T17:03:00.001-07:00

MMBE members of various professions and interests gathered to discuss the utility of using demand elasticity in investments and business analysis.
The group discussed previous and potential uses of demand elasticity in areas ranging from real estate to e-commerce.
As always, the meeting was informal and meant to share and inspire ideas among MMBE members. Thank you all for attending! Our fantastic discussion that was only made possible by your enthusiastic participation.

Persistence

2007-10-01T12:55:00.000-07:00